RRRD030 Progress Updates

November 2012

Science Summary:

-  Flow, concentration and vegetation data for the Burdekin catchment has been compiled to 2010, and in Weany Creek catchment 2001-2011. DERM monitoring data is being used to provide site-specific estimates of measurement uncertainty based on sampling technique and position within the river, as well as analytical uncertainty. DERM have provided the Upper Burdekin model runs for source catchments in the format required.

-  The Bayesian hierarchical modelling (BHM) methodology for the single-site model has been developed and implemented using a simulation approach. Flow, concentration and yield data have been simulated and used to check the model parameterisation, as well as illustrating some of the outputs from the model that will be useful for reporting.

-  Collaborations with University of Missouri staff have been established to facilitate the development of emulators for the Source Catchments model, to assimilate observations to get a more accurate prediction of the “state” of the process and to derive a better scientific understanding of physical processes based on the deterministic model structure and limited data. Dr Chris Wikle was involved in a stakeholder and project team workshop held in July 2012 to progress this approach.

Progress Update:

-  The next step will be to implement the model for a single year of data (05/06) for the Weany Creek catchment, within the Burdekin. We will progressively add complexity, accounting for uncertainty in flow and concentration, as well as testing methods to infill missing data. The team is currently developing the methodology/emulator for the upper Burdekin site (the pilot catchment area) using the Source Catchment model runs.